Mahinda 2.0

Alright. So Mahinda Rajapaksa was decisively elected by the Sri Lankans to another six-year term on Wednesday. And this is pretty much what New Delhi would have expected, and I will outline exactly why, as this post continues. But what the Sri Lankans have opted for, is a politician, reliable by their own standards who in his own way delivered what he promised the first time around – i.e. ending the War in the North and the East. In an interview to The Hindu’s N. Ram soon after the Sri Lankan Army defeated the LTTE, Rajapaksa quite categorically stated that he’d seek the mandate of the people to ensure lasting peace in the North and of course, political power to the Tamils. Well, he got what he wanted, and now here’s the moment for the Sri Lankan President to deliver on his latest promise.

Now, let me bring the New Delhi angle here. To put it bluntly, New Delhi got the man they must have wanted in Mahinda Rajapaksa. And in an essay for Pragati in November, I had argued the very point that India would prefer someone who could promise stability, who could continue with his policies, and of course also, be a civilian leader, over someone like Sarath Fonseka, who despite shedding his military uniform for a civilian post, would have retained some of the tendencies that go with the uniform and whose coalition wasn’t exactly the most stable around. Even though India might have set up a back channel through possibly Ranil Wickeremasinghe, who visited India before the election dates were announced to meet top New Delhi leaders, South Block would have still preferred going with the tried and tested devil, if I could call Rajapaksa, rather than the unknown. Easy choice, shall I say.

Now, what does this mean for India in terms of its Sri Lanka policy ? Experts in the past have been arguing that India is losing its leverage in Sri Lanka. And yes, a valid argument too – given China’s more public and active support for Sri Lanka during its war against the LTTE and also through the heavy amount of investment opportunities it has managed to grab with both hands, when New Delhi was in a way caught napping – possibly through other preoccupations. But, given the sort of influence India has had in Sri Lanka for years together, it’s not yet a situation of doom and gloom to be honest, and even if it is, it presents a golden opportunity that New Delhi must not let go. Be it through private investments, or infrastructure development (like ports) or even for that matter the goodwill we’ve had there through our soft-power i.e. Bollywood, cricket etc. Secondly, it is about time we reconcile that China is there to stay in Sri Lanka, and Beijing won’t be pushed easily. Competing for the space is important, no doubt, but I guess, it’s more down to what we must do and we must do best, both for us and for Sri Lanka, rather than be bogged down due to heightened Chinese presence there. And of course, an urgent need is to win back the trust of the majority Sinhalese population, who’ve always seen India as he bully, and equally the minority Tamil, who’ve felt betrayed by New Delhi’s lack of support during the war. There’s no better opportunity than now, to refresh our approach, reach out to the disenchanted and get the engines started.

That said, Rajapaksa is our best man. Why ? Because from a foreign policy point of view, he brings a certain balanced approach, with no 180-degree tilt either way – India or China. But, unfortunately, for the West, which might have nurtured ambitions of plotting a regime-change in Sri Lanka with Fonseka as their front, Rajapaksa’s win might be seen as a setback. Why ? Because the Sri Lankan President has over the years made peculiar friends – the likes of Libya, Iran, North Korea who in a way do not quite tow the West’s line of thinking, across various spheres.

I think if Rajapaksa’s second term would be analyzed six years from now, it would largely depend on how he handles the situation in the North, resettling the Tamils and of course, eventually, the devolution of power. Yes, the Tamils in both the North and the East voted overwhelmingly against Rajapaksa, but I think they hardly had any meaningful choice to make. But, where in a way the Tamils have won, is by exercising that very right to vote free and fair as opposed to obeying the diktats of the LTTE, putting their very life at stake. Their right to choice was the first step forward and a good one at that. But, that is exactly where Rajapaksa’s challenges begin – developing the North should be his priority, transferring power maybe next on the list and eventually establishing a policy of reconciliation which might actually lead to the Tamils and Sinhalese being able to live in peace, together. That of course, is a long-term objective, but whatever happens, the healing process must begin in the right earnest.

And lastly, the Rajapaksa Presidency 2.0 must obviously work to ensure greater media freedom (and I write this on a day when a newspaper called ‘Lanka’ was shut down) and equally, the onus is on the government to accept criticism, and make Sri Lanka a truly functional democracy, rather than a Police-state, which many fear it might end up being if these current trends of institutionalized impunity continues. Riding on this emphatic victory, Rajapaksa and his alliance will seek a fresh mandate during the parliamentary elections, and I don’t quite see many things going wrong for the ruling party and its alliance. All said, it’s been a fascinating election to follow as an observer of Sri Lankan politics.