The Emerging Configurations in Maharashtra

From all the action we’ve seen, pre-polls, during the polls and now after the polls, one can safely conclude that Maharashtra politics is never short of drama. Yes, the Congress-NCP might have done well to secure a third consecutive term by default, but even less than a week after the results were announced, there are interesting configurations emerging within all major stakeholders in the election – be it the opposition – Shiv Sena-BJP, or even the ruling alliance.

Firstly, Uddhav Thackerey broke his silence yesterday in a press conference at the Sena Bhavan, and brazenly refused to concede defeat, claiming that his party and the BJP raised the people’s issues. Wrong. He musn’t forget that he used most of his own rallies to trade pot-shots at Raj Thackerey, who only stood to gain from them. If anything, they failed miserably to do remind the DF (Cong-NCP) Government of it’s continued failures and non-performance over the past five years. Now, on a rather bizarre note, Uddhav has come up with reconciliatory messages towards his cousin, which I am sure would not move any further than press rhetoric. In this report, he’s openly advocated a *possible* coming together of sorts with the MNS and urging all stakeholders in the Marathi Manoos’ cause to come and fight together. He said, “Marathi sathi sagle ekatra aale tar toh suvarna din asel.”  (It will be a golden day if everybody comes together on the issue of Marathi manoos). Long shot with odds heavily stacked against it, I’d say. But, not within the realms of impossibility, given Raj Thackerey’s only aversion or problem being Uddhav’s leadership of the Sena (or in this case) – the lack of it.

Secondly, and more glaringly – there is clearly a turf-war playing up between Chhagan Bhujbal, the NCP’s nomination for the Dy CM post, and Sharad Pawar’s very own nephew, Ajit Pawar. Today, they came up with a compromise formula, whereby Bhujbal would hold the post for 18 months, and handing over the reigns to Pawar soon after that. Clearly, signs of a split within the NCP. And, it’s been on for a while now. There are two clear factions emerging within the ranks there, one which “wouldn’t mind” a merger with NCP’s former parent body – the Congress, and the other which wants to retain it’s independent identity as a political party. Praful Patel, throughout his campaign stumps across Maharashtra hinted at the possibility of a merger if the party didn’t do well, and with Sonia Gandhi’s foreign origin issue that of the passe, even Supriya Sule (who claimed to idolize Sonia Gandhi as a woman leader) wouldn’t mind that. And thereby assumed, Mr. Sharad Pawar too. The problem-man here, is Ajit Pawar – who is a product of the Western Maharashtra sugar/education institutes/co-operatives/money-lenders lobby, who would want to enable the NCP retain it’s own identity and might create a splinter there. Not major, considering that he doesn’t enjoy too much support both within the MLAs and the party organizers. Mr. Ajit Pawar was also not shy of flirting with the MNS for a possible alliance post-elections, even though the Cong-NCP never needed their support. Interesting developments in that camp too.

As I see how things are at the moment, there’s nothing much to worry for the Congress-NCP. All the problems are in the SS-BJP camp, where there could be large-scale third and fourth rung leaders defecting (particularly from the Sena) to the MNS, considering Raj Thackerey’s impact in these polls. For these 18 months at least, I don’t see any major problems as far as the ruling alliance is concerned. But, enter Ajit Pawar and things could start unfolding for the worse. The relationship between both the Congress and NCP would be put to the test after he takes over, largely because he’s not someone who’s known to share a close rapport with the Congress leadership. His open dissension against his uncle’s decision to let the Congress appoint it’s CM isn’t helping the cause either. And a threat of supporting the govt from the outside by Mr. Ajit Pawar if the Congress doesn’t revert to the 1999 formula (2 and a half years for CM from both parties), is something that will just let the unease grow.

As things stand today, one thing is clear – both the NCP and the Shiv Sena have something to think about, as far as their own ranks are concerned. The Shiv Sena has everything to lose – right from the cadre to its confidence, while the NCP has it’s credibility as a coalition partner at stake. 18 months later, you never know what could emerge in this state. Because, this is Maharashtra politics, after all.